PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES

Truong, Mai. 2025. Forthcoming. “Perceived Protest Efficacy: How Economic and Diplomatic Ties with China Influence Support for Anti-China Protests Over South China Sea Disputes.” Pacific Affairs.

How do citizens in Southeast Asia view and support protests against China’s aggression in the South China Sea (SCS)? Despite the critical role of public opinion in shaping Southeast Asian states’ bargaining power with China and preferences for resolving SCS disputes, little research has addressed this question. This article examines how the multifaceted economic and diplomatic relations between China and SCS claimant states influence public attitudes toward anti-China protests, focusing on the mediating role of perceived protest efficacy—the belief that protesting can effectively address SCS disputes. Using survey experiments in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, I find that information about diplomatic relations with China exerts a stronger influence on public attitudes than economic factors. Emphasizing broader political tensions increases support for anti-China protests, while highlighting improved diplomatic ties reduces it in Vietnam and Indonesia. In Malaysia, exposure to economic dependence on China diminishes support for protests. Crucially, the findings reveal that perceptions of protest efficacy mediate these effects, demonstrating how the salience of certain narratives affects collective action. By highlighting the balance between confrontation and diplomacy, this study provides fresh insights into regional dynamics, public mobilization in authoritarian regimes, and the challenges of building anti-China coalitions in Southeast Asia.

Truong, Mai. “Integrating Digital and On-Site Fieldwork: Practical Solutions for Scholars with Limited On-Site Access.” PS: Political Science & Politics, 2025, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096525000216.

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, scholars have debated whether digital fieldwork can effectively substitute for on-site field research. The prevailing view is that digital fieldwork is a last resort when in-person access is limited. Reflecting on my recent field research in Vietnam and Malaysia, I advocate for integrating digital and on-site fieldwork as complementary components of the research process. This approach is particularly valuable for scholars who are unable to spend extended periods in the field. The integrative approach helps researchers (a) prepare effectively for on-site fieldwork, (b) adapt the data collection process flexibly while in the field, and (c) continue data collection and maintain working relationships with local networks after leaving the field. Through this reflection, I encourage researchers to normalize the integration of both methodologies to leverage the strengths of each approach.

Truong, Mai. 2024. “Who Dominates the Coalition? Frame Salience and Public Support for Policy-Democracy Protest Coalitions under Authoritarian Rule.” Government and Opposition. Online first.

How does the public support a coalition in which pro-democracy advocates and policy-based protesters join forces in street protests? When policy-based and pro-democracy groups protest together, they create a collective action frame that includes a policy component and a democracy component. In this article, I develop the frame salience theory, arguing that support for a policy–democracy protest coalition depends on which component of the joint frame is perceived to be more dominant. I argue that in authoritarian regimes, the policy component typically dominates the coalition because it is more accessible and available to the public. This perception shifts public support for the alliance towards the baseline level of support for the policy movement. In other words, public support for the alliance defaults to the baseline level of support for the policy movement. I find evidence for my argument using a survey experiment administered to 1,209 Vietnamese respondents. This article highlights a dilemma pro-democracy groups face: joining policy-based movements may boost support, but sustaining democracy after the protest becomes challenging.

Trinh, Minh, and Mai Truong. “A Warning from Above: How Authoritarian Anti-Protest Propaganda Works” World Politics (2025).

When faced with unfolding protests, autocrats frequently respond with anti-protest propaganda loaded with negative narratives about protesters. Although a substantial body of literature has suggested that anti-protest propaganda can effectively alter the way the public views protests, few researchers have examined the mechanism through which it negatively affects public support for them. In this paper we offer an explanation of the role anti-protest propaganda plays in the autocrat’s goal of weakening support for protests. In our innovative experiment involving mediation analysis, we administered a survey to 950 Vietnamese respondents and show that anti-protest propaganda may deter support for protests more by influencing beliefs of the audience about the intention and capacity of the government than by shaping perceptions of the protesters’ legitimacy. This evidence suggests that even when it fails at discrediting protesters, anti-protest propaganda still serves as an effective warning, credibly signaling the commitment and ability of the government to punish protesters and their supporters.

Truong, Mai. “The “Ironic Impact” of Prodemocracy Activists: How Prodemocracy Frames Undermine Support for Policy Protests in Authoritarian Regimes” Comparative Political Studies (2023).

Many protesters under authoritarian rule are “narrow in scope, involving only one or a few neighborhoods, villages, or groups of laid-off workers” and focus on demands that “have to do only with material interests and local grievances” (Lorentzen, 2013, p.131). These protests typically blame local authorities and express loyalty to the political system. However, in the Internet age, pro-democracy advocates often endorse and co-opt these local policy protests for their own ends. Does being endorsed by pro-democracy activists undermine support for these local policy protesters? Building on research suggesting that non-activists often perceive activists as extreme, I theorize that associating with pro-democratic frames can undermine support for local policy protesters by making the protesters seem more extreme and their protests less legal. Using an Internet survey experiment in Vietnam, I find support for my argument. These findings highlight a challenge to building pro-democracy coalitions under authoritarian rule.

Truong, Mai. “Declining opportunities for speaking out: The impact of Vietnam’s new leadership on grassroots collective action.” Asian Journal of Comparative Politics (2022): 20578911221139764.

This article examines how Vietnam’s 13th Politburo elected in 2021 affects citizens’ willingness to raise their voices about policy issues through extra-institutional channels such as protests, petitions, and social media. I argue that an exceptionally high number of public security figures in the Politburo reflected the concerns of the Communist Party’s Central Committee over regime-destabilizing grassroots activism. Using an online survey experiment administered to 1500 Vietnamese citizens, which manipulates the information on the repressive nature of the public security institution and police representatives’ backgrounds, I find that a heavy police representation in the 13th Politburo makes respondents less likely to sign petitions, share their concerns on social media, and take to the streets to voice their discontent with the government. My findings suggest that single-party regimes can reverse democratic development, particularly the participation dimension, through strategic leadership arrangements.

Truong, Mai, and Paul Schuler. 2021. “The Salience of the Northern and Southern Identity in Vietnam.” Asian Politics and Policy 13(1): 18-36.

This paper explores the salience of the north-south identity in Vietnam. Using focus groups and survey data, we argue that Vietnam is characterized by asymmetric ingroup bias, where southerners hold higher levels of ingroup favoritism and outgroup discrimination than the north. However, while north-south identity exists, its salience is limited because it crosscuts with other social identities. Survey data show little difference between the north and the south regarding nationalism, support for redistribution, trade, authoritarian values and traditional values. There are differences with the south exhibiting lower trust in the government and generalized trust. Also, within Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Hanoi more specifically, we find lower support for China and higher support for the United States
in HCMC than in Hanoi. However, these differences are relatively muted, and combined with focus group evidence, suggest that while identity differences exist, they are asymmetric and not as salient as often presumed.

Schuler, Paul and Mai Truong. 2020. “Connected Countryside: The Inhibiting Effect of Social Media on Rural Social Movements.” Comparative Politics 52(4): 647-669

While much research focuses on social media and urban movements, almost no research explores its potentially divergent effects in rural areas. Building on recent work emphasizing the multidimensional effects of online communication on vertical and horizontal information, we argue that while the Internet may facilitate large-scale urban movements, it inhibits large-scale rural movements. Because social media increases vertical information flows between government and citizens, the central government responds quickly to rural protests, preventing such protests from developing into a large-scale movement. By contrast, social media does less to change the vertical information flows in urban areas. We explore the plausibility of our argument by process tracing the evolution of protests in urban and rural areas in Vietnam in the pre-Internet and in the Internet eras.

BOOK CHAPTERS

Schuler, Paul, Mai Truong, and Chris Weber. 2023. “Ideology in Vietnam: Evidence from Asian Barometer Survey Data.” How Asians View Democratic Legitimacy. Taipei: National Taiwan University Press, 384-393

Truong, Mai. 2023. Review of The Advantage of Disadvantage: Costly Protest and Political Representation for Marginalized Groups by LaGina Gause. The Forum.(Read text)

Schuler, Paul and Mai Truong. “Vietnam in 2019: A Return to Familiar Patterns” Southeast Asian Affairs. 2020 (1), 392-410. (Read text)

MEDIA ENGAGEMENT

Truong, Mai. “Why LGBT Rights Trump Environmentalism in Vietnam?” The Diplomat. October 27,2022. (Read text)

Truong, Mai. “How Trump and the 2020 US Election Are Helping Authoritarians’ Domestic Causes.” The Diplomat. December 17, 2020. (Read text)

Truong, Mai. “Explaining Public Trust in Vietnam.” Asia Times. October 07, 2020. (Read text)

Truong, Mai. “Vietnam’s Covid-19 Success Is a Double-Edged Sword for the Communist Party.” The Diplomat. August 06, 2020. (Read text)

Truong, Mai. “Revisiting the Role of Social Media in the Dong Tam Land Dispute in Vietnam.” ISEAS Perspective. June 10, 2020. No.60. (Read text)

Truong, Mai. “Vietnam’s Communist Party Finds a Silver Lining in COVID-19.” The Diplomat. March 28, 2020. Quoted in BBC, Foreign Policy, and OneZero. (Read text)

Schuler, Paul and Mai Truong. “Leadership Reshuffle and the Future of Vietnam’s Collective Leadership?” ISEAS Perspective. February 22, 2019. No. 9. (Read text)